This week: Anticipating market trends and volatility

• Thrilling price action mirrors early August trends
   
• Major moves on Sept 3rd across global markets
   
• Volatility increased after the Sept 6th jobs report
   
• Upcoming events may lead to subdued market activity
   
• Opportunities in cryptocurrencies, FX, and indices

As mentioned in last week’s report, the first full trading week of September certainly unveiled some “thrilling” price action, mirroring similar moves from early August.

As US markets returned from the long Labor Day weekend, Tuesday (Sept 3rd) saw big moves across global stock indexes and even gold.

That was followed up by more volatility in the aftermath of last Friday’s (Sept 6th) US jobs report.
 

For traders with more constrained thrill-seeking appetites, this week’s scheduled macroeconomic events should offer relatively subdued market action, at least compared to last week.

Still, we have highlighted some must-watch events for traders looking for opportunities across asset classes, ranging from cryptocurrencies to FX pairs and indices, over the course of this week.

Events Watchlist:
 

• Tuesday, September 10th: Trump vs. Harris - US presidential debate

This could be the only debate between the 2 candidates vying for the White House at the November polls. If former President Trump can outshine Kamala Harris, the “Trump trade” could sneak its way back into the market consciousness, potentially boosting the prices of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

• Wednesday, September 11th: US August consumer price index (CPI)

Economists predict that the August CPI figures would mostly match those from the month prior, except for the headline year-on-year (August 2024 vs. August 2023) CPI which eased lower from 2.9% in July down to 2.6%. Still, higher-than-expected inflation data may briefly boost the US Dollar index (USDInd) back above its 21-day moving average, on hopes that the Fed cannot afford a jumbo-sized rate cut this month (only 25-bps cut).

• Thursday, September 12th: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision

The ECB is widely expected to lower its rates by a further 25 basis points (bps) this week, as a follow up to June’s cut. There’s just a 50-50 chance of a further 50-bps in cuts remaining for the rest of 2024. If ECB President Lagarde cites greater concern over the Eurozone economic outlook and signals a faster pace of lowering interest rates, this could push EURUSD down to the lower end of the 1.0951 – 1.1190 forecasted range this week.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:

Monday, September 9

• JP225 index: Japan 2Q GDP (final)
   
• CNH: China August CPI and PPI
   
• TWN index: Taiwan August trade balance
   
• Apple launches iPhone 16
   

Tuesday, September 10

• AUD: Australia September consumer and business confidence
   
• CN50 index: China August external trade
   
• GER40 index: Germany August CPI (final)
   
• UK100 index: UK July unemployment rate, August jobless claims
   
• Bitcoin: Trump vs. Harris debate
   

Wednesday, September 11

• GBP: UK July GDP, industrial production, trade balance
   
• US500 index: US August CPI
   

Thursday, September 12

• JPY: Japan August PPI
   
• EUR: ECB rate decision
   
• USD index: US weekly initial jobless claims; August PPI
   

Friday, September 13

• NZD: New Zealand August manufacturing PMI
   
• JP225 index: Japan July industrial production (final)
   
• EUR: Eurozone July industrial production
   
• RUS2000 index: US September consumer sentiment