This Week: EURUSD to post its biggest montly gain since Nov 2022?

• EURUSD rises 4% in March 2025, so far, its biggest monthly gain since Nov 2022
   
• Key events: tariffs, Eurozone CPI, US jobs report
   
• Eurozone CPI may impact ECB rate decisions
   
• Trump’s tariffs could affect US dollar strength
   
• Fed’s Powell speech after NFP could move markets

EURUSD is up about 4% in March 2025!
 

However, can the world’s most-traded FX pair build on those gains, or will they be eroded, as we enter Q2 2025?

The week ahead features potentially seismic events: Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs, Eurozone CPI, and the US jobs report that’s followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
 

Through it all, Bloomberg’s FX model predicts EURUSD is likeliest (73.6% chance) to trade between 1.0679 and 1.0989.

Also note that Europe and the UK kicked off daylight savings time starting Sunday, March 30th.

Watchlist:
 

• Tuesday, April 1st: Eurozone March consumer price index (CPI)

Economists predict a mixed bag of inflation numbers: headline CPI unchanged at 2.3% year-on-year, a notable rise in the month-on-month headline CPI to 0.7%, and a slight easing in the core CPI to 2.5% year-on-year.

Lower-than-expected CPI that hastens ECB rate cuts could see EURUSD test its 200-day SMA for support again.

• Wednesday, April 2nd: Trump’s “Liberation Day” – more US tariffs incoming?

Initial fears were that even more US tariffs would actually heap more-than-expected damage on the world’s largest economy. Such thoughts weakened the US dollar in early March, only for USD to recover slightly as such fears eased. Markets are still uncertain as to what POTUS’s tariff salvo would actually entail mid-week.

Should the worst-case scenario be avoided, EURUSD could be dragged below its 200-day SMA.

• Friday, April 4th: US March nonfarm payrolls (NFP); speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell

Economists expect the headline NFP number to ease from February’s 151k to 135k new jobs added this month, with unemployment unchanged at 4.1%. Just 3 hours after the NFP release, markets will be eager for Chair Powell’s outlook on the world’s largest economy, in light of the latest jobs report and US trade tariffs.

Weaker-than-expected NFP, along with warnings by Chair Powell that tariffs may incur more damage on the US economy and force the Fed into earlier rate cuts, may boost EURUSD towards its recent cycle high above 1.090.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:
 

Sunday, March 30

• Europe, UK goes into Daylight Savings Time
   

Monday, March 31

• JPY: Japan February industrial production, retail sales
   
• AU200 index: March Melbourne institute inflation
   
• CNH: China March PMIs
   
• THB: Thailand February external trade
   
• GER40 index: Germany March CPI; February retail sales
   

Tuesday, April 1

• JP225 index: Japan February jobless rate; 1Q Tankan index
   
• AUD: RBA rate decision; February retail sales
   
• CN50 index: China March manufacturing PMI
   
• EUR: Eurozone March CPI; February unemployment
   
• US30 index: US March ISM manufacturing
   

Wednesday, April 2

• USDInd: Trump’s “Liberation Day” – more US tariffs incoming?
   

Thursday, April 3

• AUD: Australia February trade balance
   
• CN50 index: China March services PMI
   
• EU50 index: Eurozone February PPI; ECB meeting minutes
   
• RUS2000 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; ISM services index; speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
   
• US500 index: 25% US tariffs on auto imports kick in
   

Friday, April 4

• SG20 index: Singapore February retail sales
   
• GER40 index: Germany March construction PMI; February factory orders
   
• CAD: Canada March unemployment rate
   
• US500 index: US March nonfarm payrolls
   
• USDInd: Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell