This Week: US400 stock index to hit new record highs?

The US400 has already risen about 10% so far in 2024!

This means that this US stock index has already outperformed its more illustrious indices such as the NAS100, US30, and UK100 so far this year.

NOTE: The US400 stock index tracks the S&P Midcap 400 Index that measures the performance of middle-sized companies in the US stock market.

This week is peppered with plenty of Fed speak, leading up to the monthly US jobs report.

If markets become more confident with their bets for multiple Fed rate cuts in the second-half of 2024, that could push US400 onto new record highs, with 6.7% more gains expected over the next 12 months.

Otherwise, the US400 may look to fall downwards in search of support, potentially at its:

• 14-day simple moving average (SMA), followed by ...
   
• the 3,000 psychologically-important level.

Events Watchlist:

• Tuesday-Thursday, April 2-4: Fed speak

At least 7 different Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself on Wednesday, are due to make public speeches in the days ahead.

If markets sense that these Fed officials are shying away from their previous forecasts for 75 basis points in rate cuts later this year, that may trigger a pullback in this US400 index.

• Friday, April 5: US March nonfarm payrolls

Economists forecast 205,000 new jobs were added last month, while the unemployment rate could ease back lower to 3.8% - back down from February's 3.9%.

Higher-than-expected unemployment, or a lower-than-expected headline NFP print, may affirm US rate cut bets and see US400 zooming towards fresh all-time peaks!

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:

Monday, April 1

• Easter Monday: UK, European, HK markets closed
• JPY: Japan 1Q business sentiment; manufacturing index
• TWN index: Taiwan March manufacturing PMI
• CN50 index: China March manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, April 2

• AU200 index: Australia March inflation, manufacturing PMI (final)
• EUR: Germany March CPI; Eurozone March manufacturing PMI (final)
• GBP: UK March manufacturing PMIs
• USD index: Speeches by New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

Wednesday, April 3

• JPY: Japan March services PMI (final)
• CNH: China March services, composite PMIs
• EU50 index: Eurozone March CPI; February unemployment
• Crude oil: OPEC and non-OPEC committee to review production policy
• US400 index: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee; US March ISM services

Thursday, April 4

• EUR: ECB meeting minutes; Eurozone March services, composite PMIs (final); February PPI
• US30 index: US weekly initial jobless claims; speeches by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Friday, April 5

• AUD: Australia February trade balance
• SG20 index: Singapore February retail sales
• EUR: Eurozone February retail sales; Germany February factory orders
• CAD: Canada March unemployment
• US500 index: US March nonfarm payroll